Iran and Israel: An Unlikely Outbreak of Peace?

On June 21, the United States bombed three nuclear facilities in Iran — Fordow, Nantz, and Isfahan – and reports indicated they were obliterated. President Donald Trump had declared that the Iranian government would not be permitted to have nuclear weapons. When the country’s leadership did not come to the table to dismantle the nuclear program peacefully, the US military took action.

On June 23, Iran launched a limited retaliation against US interests by firing rockets at Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar, which is home to roughly 10,000 stationed American troops. However, there were no reports of injury, and the Qatari Foreign Ministry said that it had intercepted all missiles. Reports suggested that Iran even notified Western media in advance.

Was Iran having difficulty delivering its revenge, or was this a face-saving exercise?

Later that day, President Trump announced that a phased reduction in hostilities would begin between Iran and Israel, resulting in a complete end to the “12-day war” over a 24-hour period. Early signals suggested that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was on board, and his Iranian counterparts publicly noted that they also were ready for an official ceasefire. And yet, as is often the case in Middle East conflicts, ambiguity remained.

Can Iran and Israel Hold a Ceasefire?

“CONGRATULATIONS TO EVERYONE! It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE (in approximately 6 hours from now, when Israel and Iran have wound down and completed their in progress, final missions!), for 12 hours, at which point the War will be considered, ENDED!” Trump posted on Truth Social.

“Officially, Iran will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 12th Hour, Israel will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 24th Hour, an Official END to THE 12 DAY WAR will be saluted by the World,” Trump explained. However, this somewhat unique framework for cessation resulted in a protracted round of accusations from the combatants.

Much discussion centered on the intervals of six and 12 hours for various steps to be taken. As Trump noted, the peace deal would take effect “when Israel and Iran have wound down and completed their in progress, final missions.” So Iran and Israel seemed to want to do more damage before the deadline arrived. Indeed, such a move was important to the Iranian domestic regime in particular, which considers symbolic displays of strength as important as actual displays.

Israel apparently took the window of opportunity to deal some final blows also, angering the president. “We have two countries that have been fighting for so hard and so long they don’t know what they are doing,” Trump said.

“I’m not happy with Israel. You know, when I say okay now you have 12 hours, you don’t go out to the first hour, just drop everything you have on, so I’m not happy with them. I’m not happy with Iran either,” Trump posted.

As the tentative ceasefire began on Tuesday morning, Israel said it intercepted two missiles from Iran. According to a CNN source, though, an Iranian spokesman said, “No missiles have been fired at the enemy so far.”  More ambiguity.

The reality is that while a cessation in hostilities is still a viable outcome, lasting peace could still be a long way off. But with proof positive that both the United States and Israel can strike the heart of Iran whenever and however they choose, the Tehran leadership has a new reality with which to contend. And that, more than anything else, could be the first step in a long journey.

1. On June 21, the United States bombed three of Iran’s nuclear facilities — Fordow, Nantz, and Isfahan – and reports indicated they were obliterated.
2. On June 23, Iran launched a limited retaliation against US interests by firing rockets at Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar, which is home to roughly 10,000 stationed US troops. But no injuries were reported.
3. A ceasefire was called between Iran and Israel, although both sides made vengeful attacks.