With persistent civil unrest going on in cities across the nation and nasty Coronavirus numbers coming out, there is much to process in the next 99 days. That’s right, only 99 days until voters choose who will be the president come January 2021 – Joe Biden or Donald Trump. Will the next few months determine the outcome of the election, or are the results already decided?
This week Rasmussen published a poll. In it, they asked 1,000 people the question: “Do you still favor the candidate you liked at the beginning of the year, or have you switched your support to another candidate? Or are you still undecided?” A whopping 75% of those surveyed are sticking with the candidate they liked at the beginning of the year. Only 16% switched candidates, and 8% say they are undecided.
This result indicates the election result could already be decided. Both candidates are well known. Little in the way of mystery surrounds either man. Whether the COVID-19 numbers spike or the economy stays where it is, neither will have a big effect on voters because, for the most part, they have already made up their minds.
Things That Matter Most
If the two men go forward with their planned debates, we could see some voter movement. Debates provide an unfiltered view of the candidate, and both verbal and non-verbal cues from the candidates can affect an undecided voter. What if Joe Biden takes the stage with a clear, coherent message? Alternatively, what if his performance is poor? What if President Trump is not at the top of his game and allows Biden to put him on defense? These possibilities make the debates a big factor in the election. But in the end, these televised events will only be speaking to that 8% of people who say they are undecided.
All this suggests the 99 days ahead will not determine the election, and that voters’ minds are mostly made up on which candidate they will choose.