A New Study Suggests the Census Undercounts the Rural Population

Every 10 years in America a census is taken. A census usually asks general questions to collect statistical data to be used by governments for planning and preparation. But what happens when the census is inaccurate? A new study published in Nature Communications found that the number of folks who live outside city limits may have been underestimated: About 53% to 84% of the world’s rural communities often go uncounted or miscounted. This means there could be millions — if not billions — more people living on the planet than what researchers had understood.

What Is a Census?

Statistical data gathered at the completion of a census are vital to decision-making for governments, researchers, and institutions. A census is a process of collecting information from a country’s citizens on population, income status, geographical distribution, and education, among other things. Each country has its method of conducting a census, but it is done one way or another in nearly every country in the world. Unfortunately, for several reasons, a census does not always provide reliable data. Incorrect information can lead to issues with infrastructure planning, voting parameters, disease control, and disaster risk management.

Census May Be to Blame

The study conducted by researchers from Aalto University in Finland discovered that the rural community is largely miscounted.

“For the first time, our study provides evidence that a significant proportion of the rural population may be missing from global population datasets,” said Aalto University researcher Josias Láng-Ritter.

There are several explanations for this miscalculation, including a lack of response from those asked to complete a census, a difficulty in reaching those who live in remote locations or areas surrounded by conflict or violence, and language barriers. These census complications can mismeasure the rural community.

The Aalto University Study

The study used data sets between the years 1975 and 2010, and the authors utilized the five most widely used maps that divide the Earth into evenly spaced, high-resolution grid cells. Each cell displays the population within it based on census information. They then compared that to resettlement numbers from 300 dam projects across 35 countries.

The current census reveals there are 8.2 billion people on Earth. However, the Aalto University study contradicts that number. Each time a dam is built, large areas are flooded and require the area’s residents to be relocated. Due to this potential liability, the numbers provided by those who build new dams are much more accurate than census numbers. When researchers compared census data to dam data, they found that rural residents were severely miscounted. This discrepancy can lead to several problems in decision-making across the board.

According to Láng-Ritter, “In many countries, there may not be sufficient data available on a national level, so they rely on global population maps to support their decision-making: Do we need an asphalted road or a hospital? How much medicine is required in a particular area? How many people could be affected by natural disasters such as earthquakes or floods?”

Rural communities have as much right to necessary provisions from local, state, and federal governments and other institutions as do urban dwellers. Precise and accurate data are the only way for those who live outside the city to have the same opportunities and assistance as those in the city. For this reason, scientists and researchers are calling for a more accurate count of the world population.

Discrepancy – A lack of compatibility between two or more facts.

Provision – Something that is provided or supplied for use.

1. A Finnish study discovered there could be millions — if not billions — more people living on the planet than what researchers had understood.
2. The current census reveals there are 8.2 billion people on Earth, but a significant portion of the rural population may be missing from global population datasets.
3. Incorrect information on a census can lead to issues with infrastructure planning, voting parameters, disease control, and disaster risk management.